Canadians perplexed by Afghan mission

JOHN IBBITSON, Globe & Mail, 5 Jul 06

What do Canadians think about this country's expanded commitment in Afghanistan?

They haven't a clue. And this is very much to Stephen Harper's advantage.

The consulting firm Stratcom tacked some questions onto a recent poll, to test voter attitudes toward Canada's expanded military deployment in Afghanistan. Questions were deliberately contradictory; their purpose was to explore the extent to which Canadians have made up their minds about the wisdom of the deployment.

When asked what they thought of the statement, "Every democratic country should be committed to the war against international terrorism. That is a good reason for Canada to have troops in Afghanistan," 57 per cent of respondents agreed strongly or somewhat. Only 38 per cent disagreed.

Yet, when read a second statement, "Having Canadian troops in Afghanistan is just fanning the flames of international terrorism. That's a good reason to pull our troops out of Afghanistan," 46 per cent agreed and 48 per cent disagreed. Clearly, some of those who agreed with the first statement changed their minds, when offered a contradictory view.

Then came the third statement: "Sending Canadian peacekeeping troops to Afghanistan after the Taliban was overthrown was a good idea. But more than four years later, it is becoming clear that Canadian troops are fighting a war that just can't be won." Sixty-four per cent of respondents agreed; 41 per cent agreed strongly. Only 30 per cent disagreed.

Some people must have latched onto this third statement as a means of reconciling their internal contradictions. For others, it offered the closest approximation of their own views.

(Stratcom polled 813 people nationally over five days in the first part of June. Results are considered accurate within 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.) For John Willis, Stratcom's research director, the contradictory results suggest "there is not a solid majority of Canadians onside with this mission. On the other hand, there is not a solid majority against it."

Still, there does appear to be something of a drift toward opposition to the deployment, which should be worrying news for Mr. Harper. But he probably views these numbers with satisfaction.

The Conservatives are doing everything they can to expand their base of popular support for the Afghanistan mission.

Politicians regularly fly over to visit with the troops, touting progress in giving Afghan girls the first schooling many of them have had; the government has announced a multibillion-dollar upgrade of the Canadian Forces' expeditionary capability; Mr. Harper will happily accept the grateful thanks of U.S. President George W. Bush, later this week, for our good and faithful service in the war on terror.

The Conservatives own the pro-deployment side of the issue, and the votes that come with it.

The Stratcom poll suggests that a political party strenuously opposed to any military role for Canada in Afghanistan would also have a solid base of support. Thus far, however, no politician is ready to chase that vote.

The NDP and Bloc Québécois opposed the Conservative decision to extend the mission in Kandahar, but neither party was prepared to oppose it outright. The Liberals have committed the worst possible political sin, making their own internal divisions over the deployment a crucial part of the story.

If casualties mount, opposition politicians may become more daring, seeking to exploit any growing anti-war sentiment. Yet, that could still help the Conservatives. Polarizing the issue will give them a solid minority of voters unequivocally behind those in uniform, leaving three political parties to fight for the anti-war vote. Since the Liberals authorized the deployment in the first place, that party, in particular, will have a hard time seizing the leadership of any anti-war coalition.

All of which serves as further proof that, although Canadians and opposition politicians may be uncertain about their position on Afghanistan, the Conservatives know exactly what they're doing.

jibbitson@globeandmail.com