Tony's Top Ten

Highlights, UN Secretary General's 26 Sept 07

report on Afghanistan

by Tony Prudori

editor, MILNEWS.ca

27 Sept 07

On September 26, 2007, the Secretary General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon presented his latest report on the state of security, governance and development in Afghanistan. 

First, a bit of an overall assessment:

"As the transition in Afghanistan comes under increasing strain owing to insurgency, weak governance and the narco-economy, the Government of Afghanistan, supported by the international community, will need to demonstrate political will by taking the bold steps necessary to recapture the initiative in each of these fields and restore confidence to the population in tangible ways. Without stronger leadership from the Government, greater donor coherence — including improved coordination between the military and civilian international engagement in Afghanistan — and a strong commitment from neighbouring countries, many of the security, institution-building and development gains made since the Bonn Conference may yet stall or even be reversed."

Here are the top ten "tidbits" that intrigued me from the report - as always, feedback, good or otherwise, always welcome -- tony@mlinews.ca.

10) Improvement IS happening!

"Following a bumper wheat harvest of 4.5 million tons, the Government is reporting a smaller food shortage for 2007, decreasing the amount of food   supplies WFP will have to provide. The country will be 91 per cent self-sufficient in cereal production ....  The number of children receiving an education in Afghanistan continued to rise during the reporting period, reaching 6.07 million, 2.17 million of whom were girls. This marks the highest number of children ever enrolled in school in Afghan history .... Since 2000, Afghans have seen a steady drop in the infant mortality rate (3.5 per cent) and the maternal mortality rate (6.6 per cent), a trend which continues.  Furthermore, a total of 82 per cent of the population is now covered by a basic package of health-care services."

9) NATO winning battles, but Taliban still winning war (with help from other bad guys)

"The successes of the counter-insurgency in conventional battles and in eliminating Taliban and other insurgent leaders are undeniable. If the trends of the past two years are to be reversed, however, a more comprehensive counterinsurgency strategy will be needed to reinforce political outreach to disaffected groups and address the security gaps that allow insurgents to recover from their losses and, with very few resources, still manage to terrorize local populations or enlist criminal gangs to further their goals .... Defeating the insurgency has been complicated by the growth of criminal and drug gangs, which enjoy a symbiotic relationship with anti-Government armed groups. While these groups may not share the political goals of the Taliban, they do have a common interest in preventing the imposition of State authority in certain areas or corrupting what State authority exists."

8)  Glimmer of hope re:  Pakistan?

"The recognition by Presidents Karzai and Musharraf at the peace jirga in Kabul of the cross-border nature of the insurgency provides a unique opportunity for their respective countries to pursue a joint strategy for crossborder peace and security, aimed at defeating extremism and terrorism in both countries."

7)  Why fixing the cops is part of hearts & minds

".... serious problems remain with the performance of the police, many of whose members are involved in the sale of commissions and other forms of corruption, including direct involvement in narcotics trafficking. On the ground, respect for authority and elementary discipline have not yet been instilled, and the actions of the police within communities often inspire more fear than confidence in the people. In insurgencyaffected areas, the police have therefore not been able to ensure security, even in areas where militants had been cleared following military operations ....  The extension of central authority and the stabilization of the country will be possible only if the Ministry of the Interior resolutely tackles corruption and improves popular perceptions of the police."

6) Governance (1):  Still "Jobs for the Boys" in the provinces

"....the central Government’s continuing reliance on ethnic and tribal factors rather than merit to appoint provincial administrators has had a far more serious impact on regional development. Individuals who align themselves with key figures in the President’s administration are frequently able to determine appointments, empowering selected ethnic or tribal networks in their provinces of origin. This practice has generated resentment towards the central Government by those who have been disempowered, while the appointment of tribal notables rather than proven administrators has impeded the development of good governance."

5) Governance (2):  The simple (but not easy) solution

"An effective, integrated and coherent Government-led subnational governance programme should be developed in partnership with the international community. The Government must be prepared to take painful decisions now to bring credibility to emerging institutions. It should avoid rotating underperforming officials into new positions, especially in the provinces, and replace them instead with effective administrators who both enjoy the confidence of the population, including tribal and religious leaders, and display a capacity to manage security, development and reconstruction processes in their provinces and districts."

4)  Who do we kill?  Who do we arrest?  Who do we co-opt?

"National reconciliation will require agreement as to which insurgent leaders ought to be subject to military operations or law enforcement. It will also require both Afghanistan and Pakistan to undertake outreach and dialogue with those political forces capable of contributing to a peace process. It will be vital for all Member States to ensure implementation of the sanctions provided for under resolution 1267 (1999) and to include new insurgent and terrorist leaders on the consolidated list or remove them after reconciliation, as appropriate."

3)  Folks in the sticks reluctant to give up their arms JUST yet

"Renewed momentum behind the project for the disbandment of illegal armed groups was evident in the progress of the district disarmament initiative, which has led to the collection of 798 weapons since its launch on 19 April. Tenders for assessed development projects to reward compliance are being issued. However, resistance has been observed in the north-east, north and west, where unverified reports of weapons distribution by commanders have increased in recent months .... Some reports suggest that the ongoing viability of the Taliban as a military movement has caused commanders to hold on to their weapons in case the Government is defeated by the Taliban and the extremist group again tries to impose itself on the entire country."

2) Taliban Getting Outside Management Help

"Following counter-insurgency operations in the south and east, the Taliban have lost a significant number of senior and mid-level commanders. In Hilmand, Kunar, Paktya and Uruzgan Provinces, insurgent leaders have been forced to put foreigners in command positions, further undermining the limited local bases of support. This has heightened the importance to the Taliban of the support it receives from the border regions of Pakistan."

1)  Rewarding failure by paying so much attention to poppy-soaked south?

"The failure of development actors to ensure that quieter provinces in the north and west receive a tangible peace dividend has played into the latent north-south fault line within Afghanistan. This is further exacerbated by the perception that provinces that grow poppies, mainly in the south and east, are actually being rewarded with an inordinate share of development assistance. To offset this perception, resources continue to be committed to the Good Performers Initiative fund ($22.5 million for 2006-2007), which rewards each province that does not grow poppies with $500,000 for development assistance."